DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer and DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen briefed reporters in Washington today about the state of 2008’s downballot races. Their commentary was nothing especially groundbreaking for anyone who reads the Swing State Project, but Schumer did reveal a “target ranking” that should be of interest. MSNBC’s First Read has the scoop:
Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the DSCC is challenging in 17 of 23 GOP-held seats, including eight he believes Democrats have a solid chance in and nine others where he thinks they can be competitive. […]
Here’s the picture for the DSCC provided by Schumer:
Top targets: VA, NH, NM, CO, AK. (Schumer says they are ahead here.)Second tier: OR, MN, ME. (These are blue states; Democrats are not ahead, but are competitive.)
Red-state seats in striking range: KY, NC, MS.
Good candidates with an outside chance: NE, KS, OK, GA, ID, TX. (Schumer says of Texas that he likes Noriega as a candidate and that incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is polling surprisingly low.)
Potentially, that’s a very wide net to play with. Only the two Wyoming seats, Thad Cochran, Jeff Sessions, Lindsey Graham and Lamar Alexander are definitely off the table in the DSCC’s eyes.
However, MS is the top one in its tier on my ratings, and I cut it off after MS.
MS 2 should be a top tier race as long as we have Ronnie Musgrove in the race
Is that really a better shot than TX or maybe even OK (unlikely I know – but the incumbent is such a nut).
I (before now) had a prediction for US Senate pickups. That was 5-8 total seat pickups. He made the point that (assuming nothing grandure happens in these five senate races) we are ahead in 5 races. I expect to pickup at least one more than the “gimmie” senate seats. So I’m officially changing my senate prediction to
6-9 senate seat pickups – (8 If I had to pick a single number)
. . . is that both Wyoming seats are off the table. With an open seat, you'd think the DSCC could find someone who would be able to realistically contest it!
What about Tennessee? I think Tuke can make a strong run at it.
I would put MS in the second tier and replace NY and NC with TX and NE for the red state seats in striking range.
Awesome. Simply awesome.
I love it. I love their aggressive approach and even if they just force the Republicans to spend money in those nine other races, it could help them win in places they otherwise would not. Hell, it could help them pull in a few more votes in congressional races if Democratic voters believe the Senate race is also competitive.
Saxby Chambliss in a head to head matchup with Jim Martin is only getting 50% to Martin’s 33% after Martin announced that he was running for the senate & he only gets 51% to Dale Cardwell’s 36% in the early polls for the senate. If Martin or Chambliss can bring chambliss around the mid 40’s in the poll, he can be had for defeat. 38% of the voters in Georgia feel that chambliss deserves to be re-elected while 49% think it’s time for a change.